Navigating the Mortgage Market Roller Coaster: A Peek into 2024's Predictions
Welcome to Gervais Mortgage, your trusted partner in the world of home financing, where we make the journey from house hunting to homeownership a walk in the park! At Gervais Mortgage, we believe in living, laughing, and, of course, loans. In this blog post, we're unraveling the economic roller coaster predicted for 2024, straight from the latest commentary by the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.
Picture this: existing home sales and new single-family housing starts are gearing up for a modest growth spurt in 2024. What's the driving force? Lower mortgage rates and a slow but steady rise in homebuyer sentiment. The Fannie Mae ESR Group's crystal ball suggests that despite the affordability hurdles following recent home price hikes, the supply of existing homes is showing signs of loosening.
More households are signaling a hopeful trend, expecting mortgage rates to take a dip. Fannie Mae's January 2024 Home Purchase Sentiment Index® reveals newfound optimism, sparking potential openness among homeowners to make that long-anticipated move. The ESR Group's forecast predicts mortgage rates falling to 5.9 percent by the end of 2024 and 5.7 percent by the end of 2025 – slight upticks compared to the previous month.
Despite a recent pullback, the ESR Group anticipates single-family housing starts to trend upward in 2024. Permits have been on the rise for twelve consecutive months, and the demand for new homes remains robust. It seems like the construction industry is ready to take center stage in the Phoenix housing market.
The ESR Group upgraded its 2024 macroeconomic growth outlook due to a stronger-than-expected Q4 2023 GDP report and promising population growth and immigration trends. However, they caution that economic growth may not match the pace of 2023. A low savings rate suggests softer consumer spending ahead, consistent with the pullback in January retail sales.
As we navigate this economic roller coaster, signs of a cooling labor market emerge. Payroll growth may have reaccelerated, but other indicators, such as the household survey and the quits rate, suggest a certain softness. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, advises vigilance, noting the uncertainty in post-pandemic economic relationships.
At Gervais Mortgage, we're your trusted guides through the twists and turns of the mortgage market. While the ESR Group paints a cautious picture of economic growth, we're here to help you secure the best loan options in Phoenix, turning uncertainties into opportunities.
As we step into 2024, the housing market roller coaster promises excitement, uncertainty, and opportunities. At Gervais Mortgage Brokerage, we're not just about loans; we're about making your homeownership journey a memorable and enjoyable experience. Live, laugh, and let's explore the ride together – because with Gervais Mortgage, every home loan journey is an adventure worth embracing.
Keith ‘Beef'‘ & Alaina Gervais
Gervais Mortgage Team
Beef: 602.872.3501 | Alaina 480.296.3326
NMLS# 2127838